RBI's Take on the 2006 Elections
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Four years ago, a glimpse at Colorado would have shown a Republican Governor, two Republican U.S. Senators, five of seven Republican Members of Congress, and a Republican majority in both legislative chambers. In the 2004 Presidential election, neither party seriously targeted Colorado since it was a fore-gone conclusion that George W. Bush would carry the State.
Now, voters have elected a Democratic Governor, one Democratic U.S. Senator, four of seven Democratic Members of Congress, and a Democratic majority in both statehouse chambers. Colorado is considered a “swing” presidential state and is hosting the Democratic National Convention. Things have changed!
In 2006 voters delivered the strongest Democratic result in Colorado for at least a decade and possibly as much as forty years. Democrats made big gains across the board and continued the upward trend that began in 2004. For the first time in at least 20 years Colorado Democratic performance was above 50%. The
victories at every level were the product of not only good candidates and well-run campaigns, but an underlying shift within the Colorado electorate back to its pre-1994 status. Bottom line, Colorado is once again a true swing state.
RBI Strategies and Research conducted an analysis of the 2006 Election Cycle and has compiled the following report. We examined a number of indicators including election results, telephone surveys, and exit polls in order to come to our conclusion about voting trends in Colorado. Below is the summary of our findings:
- Democrats won more statewide seats than they have since1976 – Governor Ritter, Treasurer Kennedy, and Regent Ludwig. Ludwig is the first Democratic Regent elected at-large since 1976.
- Bill Ritter won a remarkable 57% of the vote (highest by any Democrat running for any statewide office since Romer 1990) and won an astounding 66% of the Unaffiliated vote.
- Polling showed that Bob Beauprez effectively lost this race in the late spring of 2006. In April, Beauprez trailed Ritter by just 3%—he would never again be that close.
- At key points in the race Beauprez’s words or actions cost him votes and momentum – flip-flopping on Amendment 38, which sealed the nick-name “Both Ways Bob”; the backlash over his homophobic Lt. Gov nominee Janet Rowland; claiming that 70% of black pregnancies end in abortion, and finally the criminal charges stemming from his use of illegally obtained data in his immigration attacks against Bill Ritter.
- Democratic congressional candidates received their largest margin in decades, with every Democratic candidate receiving more votes in 2006 than they did in 2004, except CD4, where a third party candidate won 8% of the vote. In the 2000 election cycle, Democratic candidates won just 37% of the vote – in 2006 that number reached 54%.
- The political fallout from Referendum A in 2003 (water) and
Referendum C&D in 2005 has played a major role in the recent Democratic surge.
Watch a video of Craig Hughes giving his post election analysis presentation to a group of progressive activists.
Thank you to Jen Caltrider for producing and posting the video on YouTube.